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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.