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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."